The Switching Raise Collapsed. The Postings Still Promise One.

On September 2, ADP told 26 million paychecks what they already suspected. Base pay for people who stayed in their jobs grew 3.0% in the year to August. Base pay for people who changed jobs grew 4.7%. The premium for walking is 1.7 points. In April 2022 the premium was 8.4 points and the walkers were clearing 16%.

That is the whole letter. You could stop here and I would not blame you. The rest is what the number costs a senior analytics IC this week.

Here is the part ADP did not lead with. Bank of America Institute published its own deposit data in May: after-tax wages, first quarter of 2026. Across all workers, switchers grew pay 8% and stayers 5%, a three-point gap the bank called the smallest in seven years. Among the top 5% of earners the gap inverted. Stayers in that cohort saw raises approaching double digits. Switchers saw low single digits. Money put it at nearly 10% against under 2%.

The people this letter writes for live near the top of that distribution. The play was always the same: interview elsewhere, get the letter, come back with a number. That play priced out this year. It priced out fastest at your level.

What’s actually moving in the market

ADP, September 2. Private employers added 38,000 jobs in August, the slowest month since January. Professional and business services lost 16,000. Gross pay, which adds bonus and tips to base, grew 4.4% for stayers and 7.3% for changers, so on that measure the premium is 2.9 points, up from the 1.9-point record low ADP recorded in January. Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, on the tech losses: “The majority of the losses came from the highest-skilled jobs in the tech sector. This was a hard month for white-collar jobs in that sector.” The take: the switching premium is back on the bonus line and gone on the base line. Base is what compounds. Base is what the next employer anchors to.

BLS, September 4. Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 in August against a 53,000 consensus. Unemployment held at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings were up 3.1% over the year, to $37.75. Information shed 23,000 jobs, and Indeed Hiring Lab’s Laura Ullrich counted 34,000 lost across information and financial activities combined, in a note titled “Rebound Without Real Relief.” Two agencies, one read. The hiring is in food service, leisure, and school districts. The seats this letter tracks are in the columns that went negative.

Bank of America Institute, May 30. The bank’s explanation for the inversion is the pricing mechanism, read flat: “in a ‘low-hire, low-fire’ environment, companies feel they have less reason to pay a premium to job switchers.” The take: the employer that is not hiring does not need to outbid, and the employer that is not firing does not need to counter. Both sides of your position went quiet in the same quarter.

Dice, August report. Tech postings fell 10% month over month in July and sit 10% above July 2025. 79% of U.S. tech postings now name an AI skill, from 75% in June. Analytics consultant titles grew more than 150% month over month. The take: the demand that exists asks for the skill in the posting and prices it there, not in the retention conversation.

My JD tracker, August 26. Eighteen craft-lane roles post a band of $125K to $375K base. DoorDash’s Director of Analytics reqs top out at $375K. Affirm’s Director, Analytics closed at $245K to $325K. Airbnb’s Staff, Payments Advanced Analytics posts $180K to $221K. A posting is a ceiling written by a recruiter. ADP’s 4.7% is what actually cleared for the people who took one. A Staff analyst on $200K reads that $221K ceiling as a $21,000 raise. ADP says the realized number for a mover was closer to $9,400. Staying paid $6,000. The premium for walking, on a $200K base, is $3,400 a year. Before the unvested equity you leave on the table.

What I’d do this week

One move. It fits in a Friday afternoon. I call it the stay memo.

The user moment is your comp cycle, wherever it lands. The manager walks in with a number from a spreadsheet that thinks in 3.0%. The counter used to be an offer letter. This year the counter is a page.

The shape: one page, three blocks.

• The band. Pull five live postings for your title and lane. Write the posted base range, the median of the five, and where your base sits as a percentile of it. Mine come from the tracker; any five Greenhouse links will do. Date it.

• The ledger. Three decisions this year that carried a number. The forecast you defended and how far it missed. The metric definition you reconciled and what moved when it changed. The pipeline latency you cut, from what to what. One line each, with the number. No adjectives.

• The ask, in base. Not “market.” A dollar figure derived from the first block, justified by the second, plus one sentence on what it costs to backfill you when 79% of postings want a skill you already operate.

Time budget: three hours. The postings take forty minutes. The ledger takes the rest, because you will discover you never wrote the numbers down. That is also a finding.

The artifact: a dated PDF in your own folder, sent to no one until the cycle, refreshed quarterly. It is the retention counteroffer you write for your own employer. ADP’s data says nobody else is writing one.

Success at two weeks: you can state your base as a percentile of five postings without opening a tab, and the ledger holds three numbers nobody can round down. Credible failure: the ledger has adjectives in it. Then you know what the next quarter is for, and it is not interviewing.

The postings still promise a raise. The paychecks stopped delivering one. The receipt is the only thing left that moves base.

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Sources

• ADP National Employment Report: Private-Sector Employment Increased by 38,000 Jobs in August — ADP Research with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, September 2, 2026 (38,000 jobs; stayer base 3.0% / changer base 4.7%; stayer gross 4.4% / changer gross 7.3%; sector losses)

• Private sector added 38K jobs in August as pay grew — Accounting Today, September 2, 2026 (Nela Richardson quotes on tech white-collar losses and base pay below pre-pandemic)

• The Employment Situation — August 2026 — Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 4, 2026 (162,000 payrolls; 4.1% unemployment; AHE +3.1% to $37.75; information −23,000; June/July revisions)

• August 2026 Jobs Report: Rebound Without Real Relief — Indeed Hiring Lab, Laura Ullrich, September 4, 2026 (53,000 consensus; 34,000 combined information + financial losses; where the hiring landed)

• Should I stay or should I go? The pay tradeoff — Bank of America Institute, May 2026 (top 5% stayers rewarded far more than switchers; deposit-data method)

• When loyalty is rewarded: Top earners who stay in their jobs get much larger pay increases than those who switch — Fortune, May 30, 2026 (top 5% stayers “approaching double digits” vs. switchers “low-single-digit”; “low-hire, low-fire” quote; Q1 2026)

• It Still Pays to Switch Jobs… Unless You’re a Top 5% Earner — Money, 2026 (nearly 10% vs. under 2% among top 5%; overall 8% vs. 5%; smallest gap in seven years)

• Pay trends to watch in 2026 — ADP Research, Nela Richardson and Liv Wang, February 17, 2026 (January stayers 4.5% / changers 6.4%; smallest premium since 2020; measure includes base, bonus, tips; 26 million paychecks)

• Switching Jobs Doesn’t Pay Off Like It Used To — Money, March 10, 2026 (1.9-point January premium; April 2022 peak premium 8.4 points)

• Pay premium for job hopping narrows to record low — Axios, February 18, 2026 (April 2022 switchers 16%; January premium smallest since November 2020)

• Dice Tech Job Report — August 2026 — Dice, August 2026 (tech postings −10% MoM, +10% YoY; 79% name AI skills; analytics consultant titles +150% MoM)

• JD Salary Tracker weekly digest — Golden Data, August 26, 2026 (craft-lane band $125K–$375K across 18 roles; DoorDash, Affirm, Airbnb posted ranges)